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You may have seen or heard this figure: between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people live in areas at risk from climate change. These climate risks are numerous: more intense, frequent and longer-lasting meteorological events (extreme heat events, fires, drought, floods, etc.), food and water insecurity, damage to human physical and mental health, and so on. They affect every continent. To face up to these risks and limit the damage, the IPCC presents factors identified in the scientific literature that could help us make the transition to a resilient model: Climate Resilient Development (CRD).
How do we define our climate resilience? It's our social, economic and ecosystem capacity to cope with climate events, trends and disturbances. We'll zoom in on this point in the report in this article, and understand why it's crucial to consider this kind of development to transform our systems in a sustainable way.
Reminder: What is the IPCC report?
The IPCC Assessment Report is a synthesis of scientific and technical information on global warming. Today, it is the most complete work on the origins and impacts of global warming on the planet. We spoke to you about the first part of this report in this article.
On February 28, 2022, the second part of the report was published. It highlights the major and potentially serious impacts that climate change could have. But it also proposes "solutions" to enable us to limit the damage and adopt a resilient lifestyle over the long term.
The urgent need to act
The urgency of immediate action is regularly reiterated in the report: as a result of measures taken and not taken in the past, we are now restricted to a smaller window of climatic action, which continues to shrink over time. We still have plenty of time to stay below 1.5°C: the results and impacts of climate change in the long term are highly dependent on short-term climate action choices.
The figure below shows the opportunities for a trajectory that would enable us to stay below 1.5°C, and the results of such a trajectory: The trajectory depends on economic, social and environmental criteria.
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What can we do? Focus on Climate Resilient Development -CRD
The 18th chapter of this section summarizes the existing literature on the subject of "Climate Resilient Development" or CRD. But what is CRD?
This involves the deployment of three actions in parallel:
- Climate change mitigation.
- Adapting natural and human systems to climate change.
- Sustainable development (according to the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals).
The combination of these actions aims to build CRD trajectories towards a maximum +1.5°C target: it should be remembered that a CRD trajectory is not a ready-made path, but a continuous process of decision-making and action that reinforces sustainable development, the reduction of poverty and inequality, and equitable, cross-sectoral adaptation.
According to this part of the report, it is no longer viable to prepare for the potential futures ahead without one of these three actions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and sustainable development are interdependent, and theclimate change adaptation cannot be achieved without these first two levers of action. Indeed, many systems have already reached their strict and/or flexible adaptation limits, and the adaptation scenarios proposed in the literature would no longer be effective or even feasible if the rise in average temperature were to exceed 1.5°C. It is therefore important to rely on trajectories that combine these 3 actions.
Who should act for resilience, when and where?
When?
To maximize impact, we obviously need to act as soon as possible. Firstly, the trajectories we are currently following, which are sharply upwards, are taking us further away from the goals of sustainable development.
Secondly, events linked to global warming are creating social and economic difficulties that have a negative impact on our ability to undertake and invest in decarbonization. If 500 million people are forced to leave their countries, which have become uninhabitable, will their neighbors' primary concern really be to invest in decarbonization?
What's more, there's a dangerous vicious circle associated with rising emissions: tipping points.
These correspond to a certain level of warming beyond which a geological equilibrium is definitively disrupted, thereby generating new GHG emissions. For example: We may soon reach the tipping point beyond which the melting of Permaforst in the Arctic will become irreversible, potentially releasing tons of GHGs previously stored in the frozen ground.
Who and where?
In the context of climate-resilient development, the report distinguishes two main types of region:
- The so-called "developed, mature and highly resilient" economies, which could focus on the aspect of energy transition and gas emissions reduction,
- Economies affected by poverty and greater inequality, which could prioritize the reduction of these criteria through economic development in the short term, and benefit in the long term from a greater capacity for climate action.
So, on our scale in France, our biggest challenge today corresponds to the first point.
Who are the players? They are a multitude of decision-making protagonists (governments, industry, media, civil society, science) who are part of different systems of governance for the implementation of these actions (local, urban, territorial, European, global). We're all involved!
Examples of concrete climate adaptation measures
Let's take a closer look at some of the points mentioned in the report on the types of measures that go towards climate resilience.
1. Co-benefits between sustainable development goals and climate resilience
Many sustainable development priorities are geared towards climate change mitigation and resilience. For example, policies to reduce air pollution improve environmental quality (health factors and ecosystem preservation). Another example: democratizing access to drinking water helps reduce poverty (sustainable development) and increases the resilience of vulnerable populations to climate impacts. This is an aspect widely highlighted in the report: the social benefits of sustainable development contribute to climate resilience and, in some cases, to reducing the impact of climate change.
2. Inclusion of all social categories in the process
On many points, the report supports the importance of inclusive measures for all social categories to achieve climate-resilient development goals. As stated above, this transition to a sustainable model involves a multitude of actors, all of whom must be taken into account: all social and cultural categories can benefit from resilient development. By way of example, the report notes that the knowledge of indigenous peoples and local know-how can provide major solutions in the fight against global warming, food security, biodiversity conservation and other issues.
Another example of the integration of different social categories in this development: the progress of climate movements today is mainly driven by young people. Some of them are fighting climate inaction by calling for disruptive action, and campaigning for collective awareness of the issue. As a result, these movements have led to strong political decisions at both local and national levels.
From an adaptation point of view too, it is imperative to include all social categories, for example in the development of adaptation strategies. The report indicates that it is necessary to take into account the most vulnerable populations, particularly those who are more subject to social inequalities (women, children, minorities, etc.) in adaptation scenarios, as these inequalities expose populations to climate risks in different ways.
3. "Nature-based solutions
A key aspect of climate-resilient development is the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems.
To this end, solutions based on nature and ecosystems can help reduce climate risks by mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. Among the adaptation opportunities cited, for example, are the development of agriculture adapted to climate change, or the development of large green spaces to ensure urban resilience.
Just as there are synergies between the inclusion of social categories and resilient sustainable development, there are real co-benefits in the joint maintenance of ecosystems, biodiversity and resilient sustainable development.
4. Multi-sector grouped efforts
Finally, to end on a point (among many we haven't mentioned), the report highlights the importance of developing multi-sectoral solutions to combat global warming. As an example, it cites 5 key transitions: a transition to a system of clean energy production, sustainable food production, adapted urban planning and transport, universal health coverage and social protection that tend towards common benefits in terms of health and well-being. These five transitions may need to be carried out simultaneously to achieve climate-resilient development. We need to move all sectors forward on the climate issue - yes, all of them.
💡 It' s up to us!
What we need to remember from this chapter and this report is that we still have a window of opportunity to make the transition to a sustainable society, and we need to aim for it today! In addition to previous reports, this latest one particularly emphasizes the importance of social justice in building climate-resilient development, and of real synergy between different sectors, ecosystems and stakeholders (inclusiveness of development).
Among the many trajectories mentioned and possible, actions and solutions interact enormously according to synergies, but also present trade-offs that need to be weighed up when establishing a sustainable, climate-resilient model. Some compromises will have to be made, as stakeholders will perceive certain actions as undesirable or unethical. As a result, improving equity is an integral consideration in achieving such development. These transitions can generate benefits in different sectors and regions, provided they are facilitated by appropriate enabling conditions. This includes effective governance, policy implementation, innovation and climate and development financing, which are currently insufficient. Every level, every sector, has a role to play in this transition.
There is no miracle solution, no clear user guide. It is possible to readjust the decisions taken as we go along, and above all it is urgent that we sketch out this trajectory with ambitious means to stay below the 1.5°C mark that will enable us to live in a sustainable world.
Conclusion: we still have a lot to do, and it's up to everyone to play their part, and all together!
